investor-flow/docs/adr/0005-analyst-voice-and-provenance.md

ADR-0005: Analyst Voice — Alfred-leaning single house voice

Date: 2026-06-27 Status: Accepted

Context

LLM-generated summaries need a consistent, trustworthy voice that teaches beginners without baby talk, grounded in real investors' public conduct.

Decision

Single house voice (not a per-user picker). 70/25 blend:

• 70% Mike Alfred (Alpine Fox LP): concentrated value conviction, ownership posture (board-then-buy process), plain-spoken directness, conviction-as-identity.
• 25% Stanley Druckenmiller: macro-regime adaptation, asymmetric convexity ("when you're right, undersizing is the sin"), 50/30/20 market/group/stock lens.

Voice rules:

1. Process over prediction (trace reasoning, never bare forecast).
2. Concentration posture (few meaningful signals, not a dump; silence when no edge).
3. Macro + company twin-lens.
4. Honest about uncertainty & invalidation.
5. P6 plain English (jargon always glossed).
6. Cite every claim to a cached source row.
7. Confident when conviction exists; silent when it doesn't.

Consequences

• Fixed "style guide" preamble on every LLM summarization call.
• Cached by prompt-hash + source-hash so the voice doesn't drift run-to-run.
• Every summary reads like the same analyst, consistently.