feat: dealer flow, mirror portfolio (M21), options convexity, FINRA short interest, alert producers, vendor gate

Snapshot of in-progress module work across multiple slices:

- Dealer Flow: dealerExposureEngine, dealerMapService, dealerMapExplain,
  dealerMapIntegrity, dealerMapReplay, dealerStudyEngine, hanStyleLevels
- Mirror Portfolio (M21): fundRepository, captureIngest, mirrorAlertProducers,
  fund holdings strip, live book, position capture ingest
- Options: BSM, NormalizedOptionSurface types, OptionsChainRouter,
  ConvexityGate, option legs panel
- Alert producers: vixLevel, rotation, thesis, unlock, portfolioRisk,
  mirror (fund_capture, fund_13f, mirror_diff)
- FINRA short interest adapter + queue integration
- SEC company tickers adapter + ingest (symbol search index seed)
- Vendor gate (rate-limit-first data plane, ADR-0009)
- CUSIP registry, reverse 13F refresh, stock float service
- LRU cache, portfolio backtest engine
- Frontend: dealer-flow, funds, journal, lab, monitor, plan, portfolio,
  reports, screener, strategies, theses, guided-start, exits, more pages
- Volume profile, workspace profile, visibility-aware poll
- ADRs 0010 (mirror math not advice), 0011 (symbol search index)
- VENDOR_INTEGRATIONS.md, END_USER_TEST.md
- .gitignore: exclude DBs, .DS_Store, local config, agent scratch

app/server/src/derisking/DeriskingEngine.ts

@@ -13,14 +13,15 @@ export type DeriskingStrategyId =
   | 'thesis_based_partial'
   | 'option_protected_collar'
   | 'regime_cut'
-  | 'correlation_driven';
+  | 'correlation_driven'
+  | 'dividend_at_risk';
 
 export interface DeriskingStrategy {
   id: DeriskingStrategyId;
   name: string;
   description: string;
   alfredFraming: string;
-  requiresOptionsSleeve: boolean;
+  requiresOptionsSleeve?: boolean; // true if this strategy requires options unlock
 }
 
 export const DERISKING_STRATEGIES: DeriskingStrategy[] = [
@@ -29,21 +30,18 @@ export const DERISKING_STRATEGIES: DeriskingStrategy[] = [
     name: 'Scale Out at Targets',
     description: 'Reduce partial position size as price reaches predefined profit targets. This adds flexibility — some position remains if the thesis continues to play out.',
     alfredFraming: 'Winners have flexibility. Scaling out at targets locks in some gains while leaving room for further upside.',
-    requiresOptionsSleeve: false,
   },
   {
     id: 'stop_trail_ema21_50',
     name: 'Stop-Trail EMA 21/50',
     description: 'Trail a stop above the 21-day or 50-day EMA. This adapts the stop to volatility, allowing the position to breathe while protecting gains.',
     alfredFraming: 'Trailing stops adapt to changing conditions. A static stop ignores new information.',
-    requiresOptionsSleeve: false,
   },
   {
     id: 'thesis_based_partial',
     name: 'Thesis-Based Partial Reduction',
     description: 'If the thesis is weakening but not fully invalidated, consider reducing position size rather than fully exiting. This acknowledges uncertainty without abandoning the thesis entirely.',
     alfredFraming: 'When the thesis weakens but is not broken, flexibility means adjusting size — not all or nothing.',
-    requiresOptionsSleeve: false,
   },
   {
     id: 'option_protected_collar',
@@ -57,14 +55,18 @@ export const DERISKING_STRATEGIES: DeriskingStrategy[] = [
     name: 'Regime-Cut Reduction',
     description: 'When the market regime shifts to trending-down, consider reducing exposure across the portfolio. This is a macro-level derisking response to changed conditions.',
     alfredFraming: 'When the tide turns, reduce exposure. Fighting a regime shift is a common way winners become losers.',
-    requiresOptionsSleeve: false,
   },
   {
     id: 'correlation_driven',
     name: 'Correlation-Driven Reduction',
     description: 'When multiple positions become highly correlated, consider reducing the most correlated ones. Concentrated correlation creates hidden portfolio risk.',
     alfredFraming: 'When everything moves together, you do not have diversification — you have one bet wearing many masks.',
-    requiresOptionsSleeve: false,
+  },
+  {
+    id: 'dividend_at_risk',
+    name: 'Dividend at Risk',
+    description: 'When a dividend-paying stock shows signs of a potential cut — high payout ratio, declining yield, or skipped ex-date — consider reducing exposure before the cut is announced.',
+    alfredFraming: 'Dividend cuts usually arrive after the warning signs are visible. The market often prices a cut before it is announced.',
   },
 ];
 
@@ -80,8 +82,10 @@ export interface DeriskingInput {
   thesisStatus?: 'intact' | 'weakening' | 'broken';
   currentRegime?: 'trending-up' | 'trending-down' | 'range-bound';
   portfolioCorrelation?: number; // 0-1, how correlated this position is with others
-  optionsUnlockState?: number; // 0-4, from ConvexityGate
   profitTargets?: number[]; // price levels
+  dividendYield?: number;
+  payoutRatio?: number;
+  optionsUnlockState?: number; // 0 = locked, 3+ = unlocked for option strategies
 }
 
 export interface DeriskingSuggestion {
@@ -152,13 +156,14 @@ function evaluateStrategy(
     }
 
     case 'option_protected_collar': {
-      const hasOptionsSleeve = (input.optionsUnlockState ?? 0) >= 3;
+      // Gated by options unlock state (0 = locked, 3+ = unlocked)
+      const hasOptionsUnlock = (input.optionsUnlockState ?? 0) >= 3;
       return {
         strategy: strat,
-        applicable: hasOptionsSleeve && inProfit,
-        reason: hasOptionsSleeve
-          ? 'Options insurance sleeve is unlocked. A collar may define downside risk while partially financing protection.'
-          : 'Options insurance sleeve is not unlocked. Collar strategy requires the insurance sleeve tier.',
+        applicable: inProfit && hasOptionsUnlock,
+        reason: !hasOptionsUnlock
+          ? 'Option collar requires options unlock level 3 or higher.'
+          : 'A collar may define downside risk while partially financing protection.',
         details: strat.alfredFraming,
       };
     }
@@ -186,5 +191,21 @@ function evaluateStrategy(
         details: strat.alfredFraming,
       };
     }
+
+    case 'dividend_at_risk': {
+      const dy = input.dividendYield;
+      const pr = input.payoutRatio;
+      const atRisk = (dy !== undefined && dy < 0.005) || (pr !== undefined && pr > 0.95);
+      return {
+        strategy: strat,
+        applicable: atRisk,
+        reason: atRisk
+          ? (dy !== undefined && dy < 0.005
+            ? `Dividend yield is very low (${(dy * 100).toFixed(2)}%). This may indicate a recent cut or unsustainable payout.`
+            : `Payout ratio is very high (${((pr ?? 0) * 100).toFixed(0)}%). Earnings may not cover the dividend.`)
+          : 'Dividend fundamentals appear healthy.',
+        details: strat.alfredFraming,
+      };
+    }
   }
 }